This is a simple calculator for Australians to see their chances of dying from Covid-19 using various government reported data. Enter your age to view odds and stats related to your age group.

The information on this website is being put together by citizens concerned for Australians facing Covid-19 in the absence of information on early treatments and options to vaccinations. Full disclaimer is below.

Here are the results

Current DELTA variant

With NO Co-Morbidities

No Treatment
With Early Treatment

Figures Based on US Deaths "with" Covid19. Read more below.

Current DELTA variant

If you have Co-Morbidities

No Treatment
With Early Treatment

*Delta Variant: Figures Based on US Deaths "with" Covid19. Where the CDC discovered 94% of those deaths had at least one co-morbidity. Adjustment made for lower case fatality rate of the Delta variant as compared to the Alpha variant data.

Original ALPHA variant

Your yearly chances with the ALPHA variant

No Treatment
With Early Treatment

Figures Based on US Deaths "with" Covid19. Where the CDC discovered 94% of those deaths had at least one co-morbidity and an average of 2.9 Co-Morbidities.

The Australian expected death rate statistics as calculated against corresponding US death rates, and averaged out over 1 year and with the appropriate population ratio.

This is also assuming an early treatment efficacy of 85% using available information. These early treatments are not allowed in Australia Due to TGA regulatory decisions that have been criticized widely in Australia and around the world. 

Information on Early Treatment:

What kind of natural results are expected for Australia if there was no constraint on movement and relying on natural immunity?

Annual Deaths
Deaths per Week

What are my odds of dying from Covid?

Compared to other forms of reported deaths.

Disclaimer – below are odds over a lifetime.

Above odds are based on catching Covid once and assume lifetime natural immunity conferred on the individual that survives Covid. Available data to date suggests lifetime immunity is NOT the case from current available Vaccines that carry a risk with every dose and have shown to have immunity properties that Covid19 is escaping within 3 to 12 months.

For those that need more stats....

These are the age group breakdowns of Covid crude mortality rates from the US NCHS:

Case Fatality Rate
Age Range% Deaths(Alpha)
Early Treatment
Early Treatment
0-17 years0.06%0.004%0.001%0.001%0.000%
18-29 years0.42%0.04%0.01%0.01%0.002%
30-39 years1.21%0.14%0.02%0.05%0.01%
40-49 years3.19%0.42%0.06%0.14%0.02%
50-64 years16.04%1.34%0.20%0.46%0.07%
65-74 years22.32%3.74%0.56%1.27%0.19%
75-84 years27.29%9.01%1.35%3.07%0.46%
85 years and over29.47%23.53%3.53%8.02%1.20%

Australian Leading Causes of Death

Showing estimate expected Covid-19 deaths based on population adjusted calculations compared to the U.S.

Ischaemic heart diseases (I20-I25) 1824484.0
Dementia, including Alzheimer's disease (F01, F03, G30)1501689.1
Cerebrovascular diseases (I60-I69) 989186.3
Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung (C33, C34) 882174.3
Covid-19 - Estimate deaths without treatment8407-
Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40-J47) 837280.7
Malignant neoplasm of colon, sigmoid, rectum and anus (C18-C21, C26.0) 541077.6
Diabetes (E10-E14) 496782.0
Malignant neoplasms of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissue (C81-C96) 479378.5
Influenza and pneumonia (J09-J18) 412488.8
Diseases of the urinary system (N00-N39) 390387.2
Heart failure and complications and ill-defined heart disease (I50-I51) 364888.6
Malignant neoplasm of prostate (C61)361182.4
Intentional self-harm (X60-X84, Y87.0) 331843.9
Accidental falls (W00-W19) 329887.4
Malignant neoplasms of breast (C50) 326172.3
Malignant neoplasm of pancreas (C25) 320774.6
Cardiac arrhythmias (I47-I49) 240889.1
Malignant neoplasm of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts (C22) 220471.9
Hypertensive diseases (I10-I15)217788.2
Cirrhosis and other diseases of liver (K70-K76)211165.0
Covid-19 - Estimate deaths with early treatment1345-

Frequently Asked Questions and References

*Delta Variant

Based on relative case fatality rate for Alpha data from the CDC and Delta data from the UK where adult vaccination rates are approximately 80%.

At the time of writing this report, it was unclear if vaccination had any effect on case infection rates.

What is Early Treatment?

Peer Reviewed Early Treatment Protocols in the US
(Not available in Australia due to TGA regulations)

References and Sources

Crude Mortality Rates data taken from NCHS (US)

Leading Causes of Death - Australia 2019

Information about Delta variant compared to Alpha (UK)

Cases showing even distribution (US)

Total Case numbers (US)

Australian Estimates

Australian estimates are based on population ratio beween U.S. and Australia using 2020 figures:    
US in 2020    331,002,651
AUS in 2020    25,499,884



Every person’s medical and physical circumstances are different. Entering your age alone can only calculate odds of outcomes based on the average condition and circumstances associated with the hundreds of millions of individuals whose clinical outcomes form part of the statistics used.  An individual may have factors that make their chances far better by virtue of correlating statistical factors.

For example:

  1. Having no co-morbidities. According to a CDC report 94% of all deaths reported “with Covid19” had at least 1 co-morbidity with an average of 2.9 Co-morbidities per death reported "with Covid19". (
  2. Having healthy levels of Vitamin D. ( 
  3. Having a healthy weight range. (
  4. Having healthy levels of Zinc. (

Conversely you may have individual factors that make your chances worse.
Information contained on this website should not be construed in any way, shape or form, either directly, indirectly, expressed or implied (without limitation) to suggest that we are providing medical advice, promoting or advertising medications such as Ivermectin, Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin and Doxycycline have been approved for use in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 according to the Australian Therapeutics Good Administration.

Odds Calculated are based on the average case numbers and average case fatality rate per age group in a 12 month period.

A very simple risk based assessment for early treatments and or current Covid19 provisional vaccines for any age group could be to consider the known reported short term adverse effects, guess the unknown medium term adverse effects and guess the unknown long term adverse effects of the novel technology vaccines on the assumption that booster shots are currently being taken every three to four months in Israel; so one can essentially add up the Vaccine Dose Risks odds with every successive booster Dose for the period of time one expect to be reliant on vaccine immunity (breakthrough cases for the current Delta strain appear to be hovering around 60% to 70% rather than natural immunity (No significant numbers of Natural Immunity breakthrough to report) .

For a closer look at Vaccine reported short term data see:

Australia (Difficulty level – High)
USA (Difficulty level – Easy)
USA (Difficulty level – Easy)
USA (Difficulty level – Easy)
UK (Difficulty level – Easy)